Analysis of Sustained Growth Characteristics of Carbon Storage in Central Asia Under Multi-Scenario Simulation

As a pivotal area in the context of global climate change, central Asia exerts a crucial influence on tackling climate change and preserving regional ecological equilibrium via the carbon sink capacity of its ecosystem. In this study, the patch-level land use simulation model was employed to predict land use changes in central Asia under three different scenarios: agricultural priority, urbanized priority, and ecological priority. Subsequently, the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs evaluation model is utilized to analyze variations in ecosystem carbon storage for each scenario. Finally, the multiscale geographic weighted regression model is used to identify the main driving factors influencing carbon storage changes. The findings indicate the following: (1) In the ecological priority scenario, a balance is struck between urban expansion and resource environment protection within ecological spaces. Conversely, in the urbanized priority and agricultural priority scenarios, ecological spaces experience a reduction. (2) The simulation results of carbon storage in 2060 under different scenarios suggest that the ecological priority scenario will see the largest increase in carbon storage, amounting to 1.076 × 10⁸ t. (3) The digital elevation model, precipitation, slope gradient, and temperature contribute relatively more significantly to the carbon storage in central Asia. The findings emphasize the necessity of enhancing carbon storage through ecological space protection and rational land use management, providing scientific evidence for the formulation of regional carbon management and ecological protection policies.