Spatial and temporal analysis of dry spell variability in Aceh, Indonesia: Implications for drought mitigation and agricultural planning

Abstract Understanding the spatial and temporal variability of dry spells is critical for effective agricultural planning and water resource management, particularly in regions prone to climate variability. This study analyses the spatial distribution and seasonal patterns of dry spell probabilities in Aceh, Indonesia, using a first-order Markov chain model applied to 20 years of high-resolution satellite precipitation data (2001–2020). The results reveal a distinct north-south gradient in dry spell probabilities, with the northern regions experiencing higher frequencies of consecutive dry days, especially during the dry season (June-August). The return period analysis indicates that the northern and eastern parts of Aceh are more susceptible to prolonged dry spells, posing significant risks to rain-fed agriculture, particularly paddy cultivation. These findings underscore the importance of targeted drought mitigation strategies, such as developing drought-resistant crops and enhancing irrigation infrastructure, to ensure agricultural sustainability in the region. The study also highlights the critical role of topography in shaping local climate patterns, with implications for regional climate adaptation strategies. This research contributes valuable insights into the climatic challenges faced by tropical regions and offers practical guidance for improving resilience to drought conditions.