Future habitat suitability and population status of two critically endangered resident Gyps vultures in a northern Indian state predicted through modelling

Vultures are an imperiled yet insufficiently studied scavenger guild. Indian Vulture (IV) and White-rumped (WRV) Vulture -- two critically endangered vultures -- have declining global population trends. Habitat, a proxy of population, is known to be impacted by climate change. This study is aimed at assessing changes in future(s) habitats from the present and identifying responsible factors influencing changes using MaxEnt SDM. Twenty-eight models/predictions were made and their robustness was evaluated using AUC (0.90–0.97), TSS (0.4–0.5) and CBI (0.804–0.961). The top three bioclimatic variables for WRV were bio09, bio13 and bio08 but differed in IV (bio15, bio08, bio03). The suitable habitat was found in distinct parts of the study area, forested plains for WRV and cliffs and hills for IV. In the present-day conditions, 16 % (WRV) and 10 % (IV) of the studied area (240930 km 2 ) was found to be suitable which fluctuated up to 5 % in future. Climate change-based population predictions were also not encouraging. Though the models could be further improved by removing limitations, the instant predictions could be taken as reference and used from a management perspective while developing conservation strategies by the concerned agency. In general, decreasing suitable area and declining population in the future warranted serious conservation concern. Landscape level vulture centric planning must be done by maintaining suitable areas as vulture safe zones. Vulnerable areas should undergo habitat improvement by increasing nesting and roosting site and food availability through agroforestry practices. • Present and future habitat of two endangered Gyps vultures and their population. • Under the impact of climate change, the habitat was predicted to undergo net loss. • Future populations may also be affected despite recovery from the diclofenac shock.