Managerial turnover and performance: lessons from the Polish Ekstraklasa

Purpose: The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of managerial turnover on organisational performance. This study contributes to the ongoing debate on whether changing a manager results in performance improvements and investigates this phenomenon in the context of resource-constrained sports organisations. Design/methodology/approach: Using a dataset covering the 2006/2007 to 2023/2024 seasons, this study analysed 115 cases of managerial changes made during the season. For each managerial change, an alternative scenario was constructed in which the manager was retained despite similar team performance. A model was developed to assess the outcomes of both scenarios, accounting for team strength (measured by the ELO rating) and home advantage to control for match-specific influences on performance. Findings: The results show a modest improvement in team performance following managerial changes. However, a similar improvement was observed in the alternative scenarios where no change occurred, indicating that this effect is largely attributable to regression to the mean. Practical implications: These findings suggest that mid-season managerial changes are not associated with significant improvements in team results compared to scenarios where managers were retained. This contributes to the broader discussion on the efficacy of managerial changes in professional football leagues, particularly within financially constrained settings, exemplified by the Polish Ekstraklasa. Originality/value: This study adds to the discourse on the implications of changes in key organisational positions. The novelty of this research stems from the application of contemporary methodological approaches to evaluate the effects of managerial changes in organisations facing numerous constraints, such as the Polish Ekstraklasa. Additionally, the study introduces a methodological innovation: the use of the ELO ranking system, which can be applied to assess the strength of teams competing in competitions marked by substantial variability in outcomes. Keywords: managerial turnover, sport performance, regression to the mean, Polish Ekstraklasa. Category of the paper: Research paper.