Epidemiology, socioeconomic correlates, and trend projections of multiple myeloma in Asia over 2020–2040

Introduction: Multiple myeloma imposes a significant global disease burden, with substantial disparities in different regions. This study aimed to provide comprehensive estimates of multiple myeloma's epidemiology across Asian countries in 2020 and its projection to 2040. Methods: Data on the prevalence, incidence, and mortality of multiple myeloma and immunoproliferative diseases in 2020 was obtained from the Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN). Case numbers, 5-year prevalent cases, 5-year prevalence rate, crude rates, age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), mortality rates (ASMRs), and mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) were computed. The correlation of incidence metrics with socioeconomic factors of the Human Development Index (HDI) was assessed through the Pearson correlation coefficient (r). Estimation of the projected number of new cancer cases or mortalities from 2025 to 2040 was performed by multiplying the age-specific rates for 2020 by the expected population for 2025 to 2040. Results: Asia accounted for 35.96 % of global multiple myeloma incident cases, with a 5-year prevalence of 3.20 per 100000 population. The highest prevalence rates were observed in Eastern (4.80/100000) and Western (4.60/100000) Asia. Western Asia accounted for the highest ASIR (2.10/100000) and ASMR (1.60/100000). Substantial inter-country variations existed, with Israel, Japan, Republic of Korea, and Singapore having the highest national prevalence rates (>12/100000). Incidence and mortality numbers and rates were consistently higher in Asian males compared to females. MIR was 0.79 in Asia, higher than most other regions except Africa. HDI showed a positive correlation with ASIRs and ASMRs, and a negative correlation with the MIR. Projection estimates suggested a 67.5 % increase in multiple myeloma cases and a 73.8 % rise in mortalities by 2040 compared to 2020 in Asia. Conclusions: Substantial geographic variations exist in multiple myeloma burdens within Asia which suggests the need for tailored regional strategies to address projected increases in incidence and mortality.