Modeling willingness to continue participation in payments for ecosystem services programs: A case of China's second phase of the grain for green program in indigenous communities

Literature on Payments for Ecosystem Services Programs in developing countries is focused on the underlying assumption of a rational economic agent, and useful concepts from social-psychological models are ignored. The existing literature also lacks studies on indigenous communities and the differences in poor and non-poor people's participation. We proposed a Random Utility Model that integrates some concepts of the Expectation Confirmation Theory to examine the factors influencing Yi (indigenous) people's willingness to maintain their reforested land after the end of financial incentives of China's Second Phase of the Grain for Green Program. We compared the willingness and the impacts of influencing factors for poor and non-poor participants. We also analyzed preferences for financial incentive options of participants unwilling to maintain their reforested land. Findings of this study revealed that: (i) similar proportions, about 60 %, of poor as well as non-poor participants are willing to maintain their reforested land; (ii) inertia to change land use and ecological awareness are top two influencing factors for both groups and expectation is the next key factor for poor people; (iii) the signs and magnitudes of influences vary between poor and non-poor groups; (iv) 61 % of unwilling households prefer short-term and 31 % prefer long-term financial incentive options; and (v) participants who have inertia to change land use and have planted ecologically important species are more likely to choose the long-term payment option. Policy recommendations to enhance ecological awareness and inertia to change land use and reduce dependence on farm income were made. • A Random Utility model of willingness to continue participation in PESPs is proposed. • Participants' satisfaction, expectation, inertia, and ecological awareness are included in the model. • Similar proportions of poor and non-poor participants are willing to continue participation. • The impacts of influencing factors on willingness vary between poor and non-poor groups. • More unwilling participants prefer short-term than long-term payments.