Modeling coastal land use scenario impacts on ecosystem services restoration in Southwest Ghana, West Africa

Urbanization significantly degrades coastal habitats in West Africa, necessitating habitat restoration. However, application of land use scenarios to investigate coastal habitat restoration outcomes in West Africa is still lacking in the scientific literature. We developed four land use scenarios for Southwest Ghana—Urbanization Scenario (UBS), Urban Greening Scenario (UGS), Plantation Agriculture Scenario (PLAS), and Landscape Restoration Scenario (LRS). The impacts of these scenarios on land use patterns and ecosystem services (ES), namely, food, fuelwood, carbon sequestration, and recreation benefit were assessed and visualized by integrating benefits transfer data and experts’ knowledge in a spatially explicit modeling platform. UBS decreased all ES supplies, while LRS showed negative synergies between food and carbon sequestration, turning positive with increased restoration. LRS also led to mixed swamp forests’ expansion, unchanged palm swamp forests, and declining mangrove swamps. The study recommends planning regulations to protect and restore swamp forests to safeguard these critical habitats from urbanization impacts.