More than urbanization: Spatial patterns and dynamics of tree canopy cover in Beijing’s villages

Trees in the village play an important role in enhancing the human habitat, contributing to multiple ecosystem services. However, few studies have employed tree canopy cover as an indicator to assess the impact of urbanization on village communities' greening. In this study, we used high-resolution imagery to map the village tree cover (VTC) in Beijing and quantified urbanization intensity based on impervious surface. We analyzed the spatial patterns and dynamics of VTC along the urban-rural gradient from 2013 to 2023, and assessed the effects of both current conditions and historical urbanization developments on VTC. We also used multilevel models (MLM) to examine whether existing theories on urban tree cover distribution can be generalized to VTC. Our results showed that: (1) Beijing experienced a massive decline in aggregated VTC from 18.92 % in 2013 to 7.53 % in 2023, with the most significant decline in the exurb, where VTC decreased from 23.60 % to 7.36 %. The spatial heterogeneity led by increasing VTC along the urban-rural gradient was disappearing. (2) The current states of urbanization can explain up to 22 % of the temporal dynamics and 15 % of the spatial variations in VTC, making it a stronger predictor than historical urbanization processes. (3) Village physical characteristics better predict the spatial variations in VTC than socioeconomic context, with building density being the primary factor. Our study indicates that, in the context of urbanization, vegetation in underdeveloped village communities may be at a higher risk of rapid deterioration. Therefore, monitoring tree health and preserving trees in these regions are crucial for sustainable development. Furthermore, we improved the existing research framework by using limited cross-sectional data to assess the long-term impacts of urbanization on village greening, with the potential for generalization to developing countries.