Cost reduction analysis for sustainable ethylene production technologies

• Renewable ethylene costs 3–9 times more than the current average market price. • Cheaper feedstock is crucial for renewable ethylene to become competitive by 2050. • Ethylene from CO 2 electrolysis may cost 1660€/t in 2050 under optimistic assumptions. • Yields over 63% are required for OCM to reach cost competitiveness by 2050. • DMETO and synthetic ethanol dehydration need market-pull policies to be competitive. Production of ethylene, one of the main petrochemicals, remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, both as energy source and as feedstock. Several strategies and options are being considered to decarbonize and defossilize ethylene production. So far, no studies exist that provide quantitative insights into how to accelerate the development and deployment of new ethylene technologies. The aim of this work is to determine under which technological learning and market deployment conditions renewable ethylene production technologies can become cost competitive by 2050. To meet this goal, six new ethylene production technologies are analyzed: electric cracking, ethanol dehydration, oxidative coupling of methane (OCM), dimethyl-ether-to-olefins (DMETO), methanol-to-olefins (MTO), and CO 2 electrolysis. We find that renewable ethylene is 3–9 times more expensive than the current average market price of ethylene. A three-level framework (with technology, process, and system as dimensions) to analyze cost reductions is applied and nine different cost projections for 2050 based on different learning rates and deployment scenarios are shown. Feedstock prices as low as 230€/t are required, to achieve the most optimistic projected cost of ethylene produced via electric cracking of synthetic naphtha (480€/t). Ethylene produced from synthetic MTO could cost 1030€/t by 2050, contingent on a price of synthetic methanol of around 450-475€/t. Achieving a projected ethylene cost from OCM of 529€/t remains challenging, even with low synthetic natural gas prices and state-of-the art technology. Ethylene from CO 2 electrolysis has a projected cost of 1660€/t in 2050. Even with low electricity prices (5€/MWh) and state-of-the-art technology, this projection remains practically unattainable. Ethylene production from synthetic DMETO or synthetic ethanol dehydration does not achieve cost competitiveness in 2050, as the costs reach 1250€/t and 1100€/t, respectively.