Environmental Effects on the Ecological Carrying Capacity of Marine Ranching in the Northern South China Sea

The marine ecological carrying capacity (MECC) of marine ranching serves as a crucial indicator for assessing the conservation effect of fishery resources and forms a significant basis for scientific management of coastal fisheries. The environmental impacts on the MECC of marine ranching in the northern South China Sea were analyzed quantitatively by employing Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), which have been successfully applied to the study of the relationship between fishery resources and environmental factors, and factor analysis, using satellite and survey observations. Results showed that 95.40% of the total variation in MECC was explained by these factors. Based on the GAMs, the most important factor was Year (calendar years), with a contribution of 66.20%, followed by Chlorophyll a concentration (Chl-a), Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Dissolved Inorganic Nitrogen (DIN) and Water Current, with contributions of 20.60%, 4.40%, 3.60%, and 0.60%, respectively. The findings of this study inspire us to establish a long-term marine ranching resource and environment monitoring platform, and an early warning and forecasting expert decision-making system, providing scientific references for planning and management of coastal marine ranching.