Rice Growth Estimation and Yield Prediction by Combining the DSSAT Model and Remote Sensing Data Using the Monte Carlo Markov Chain Technique

The integration of crop models and remote sensing data has become a useful method for monitoring crop growth status and crop yield based on data assimilation. The objective of this study was to use leaf area index (LAI) values and plant nitrogen accumulation (PNA) values generated from spectral indices to calibrate the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model using the Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) technique. The initial management parameters, including sowing date, sowing rate, and nitrogen rate, are recalibrated based on the relationship between the remote sensing state variables and the simulated state variables. This integrated technique was tested on independent datasets acquired from three rice field tests at the experimental site in Deqing, China. The results showed that the data assimilation method achieved the most accurate LAI (R² = 0.939 and RMSE = 0.74) and PNA (R² = 0.926 and RMSE = 7.3 kg/ha) estimations compared with the spectral index method. Average differences (RE, %) between the inverted initialized parameters and the original input parameters for sowing date, seeding rate, and nitrogen amount were 1.33%, 4.75%, and 8.16%, respectively. The estimated yield was in good agreement with the measured yield (R² = 0.79 and RMSE = 661 kg/ha). The average root mean square deviation (RMSD) for the simulated values of yield was 745 kg/ha. Yield uncertainty from data assimilation between crop models and remote sensing was quantified. This study found that data assimilation of crop models and remote sensing data using the MCMC technique could improve the estimation of rice leaf area index (LAI), plant nitrogen accumulation (PNA), and yield. Data assimilation using the MCMC technique improves the prediction of LAI, PNA, and yield by solving the saturation effect of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). This method proposed in this study can provide precise decision-making support for field management and anticipate regional yield fluctuations in advance.