Wolves in Sheep’s Clothing: Community Meetings and Voter Control in Non-Democracies

How can autocratic leaders influence voters and entrench their rule? I analyze a Rwandan mandatory community program that requires citizens to participate in local community work every last Saturday of the month. Following the work, a centrally appointed government leader usually delivers a speech. I exploit cross-sectional variation in exposure to the meetings induced by exogenous rainfall fluctuations. I find that places with many rainy last-of-the-month Saturdays are significantly less likely to vote for the leading party. In terms of mechanisms, additional suggestive evidence points to the meetings likely being used to create an atmosphere of state control and supervision such that people feel more inclined to vote for the ruling party. These findings are also supported by anecdotal evidence and I rule out alternative explanations.