Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling strength over central Europe in the recent warming climate

Abstract. In recent decades Europe has experienced severe droughts and heatwaves. Notably, precipitation in central Europe exhibited strong dry anomalies during the summers of 2003, 2018, and 2022. This phenomenon has significant implications for agriculture, ecosystems, and human societies, highlighting the need to understand the underlying mechanisms driving these events. Despite significant advancements in understanding land–atmosphere (LA) coupling, the temporal variability in LA coupling strength and its associated impacts remain poorly understood. This study aims to quantify the variability in LA coupling strength over central Europe during the summer seasons from 1991 to 2022, with a focus on the relationships between temperature, soil moisture, precipitation, and large-scale weather patterns. Our results reveal that interannual variability occurs in different coupling relationships throughout the summer seasons, with significant implications for climate extremes, agriculture, and ecosystems. The increasing frequency of warm and dry summers from 2015 onwards hints at extended periods of reduced soil moisture available for evapotranspiration and the likelihood of locally triggered convection. This study provides new insights into the dynamics of LA coupling, highlighting the importance of considering the interannual variability in LA coupling strength in climate modeling and prediction, particularly in the context of a warming climate.