Ukraine’s grain economy in the context of Russia’s full-scale invasion

Before the war, Ukraine was one of the largest grain producers in the world and the aggression caused significant disruptions to its export. The question arises whether and to what extent the war caused changes in territorial production differences and sales abroad. Therefore, the article consists of two parts: analysis of Ukrainian grain production and exports in the context of Russia’s full-scale invasion, and changes in cereal exports as a factor in the location of grain production. Our study relies on official data from 2020 to 2023 published by the State Customs Service of Ukraine and State Statistics Service of Ukraine along with reports from business analysts and agricultural organisations. In order to analyse statistical data, we used mathematical statistics methods and the cartographic method to show the regional structure of national grain economy. It has been demonstrated that the share of cereal in national exports of goods reached 23.0% in 2023. Corn and wheat make up of more than two-thirds of produced and exported grains. Key changes in the location of Ukrainian cereals production and exports occur during Russia’s full-scale invasion. The production and export of grain in the regions of Ukraine located in the service area of the Odessa Railway and in Volyn and Transcarpathian oblasts increased in 2022–2023. During the hybrid phase of the Russian aggression (2014–2021) two specialised grain belts were formed – corn in the west and wheat in the south of Ukraine. During Russia’s full-scale invasion, the specialisation of the grain economy of Ukraine’s regions did not change. Only in the country’s western regions did the volume of grain production increase. The grain economy recovered from the shock and restored grain production volumes to the average level of 2014–2021. A series of maps was drawn up which show the dynamics of changes in various indicators of grain crop production and export in 2020–2023 by Ukraine’s regions.