Ecological thresholds and transformations due to climate change: The role of abiotic stress

Abstract An ecological threshold is the point at which a comparatively small environmental change triggers an abrupt and disproportionately large ecological response. In the face of accelerating climate change, there is concern that abrupt ecosystem transformations will become more widespread as critical ecological thresholds are crossed. There has been ongoing debate, however, regarding the prevalence of ecological thresholds across the natural world. While ecological thresholds are ubiquitous in some ecosystems, thresholds have been difficult to detect in others. Some studies have even concluded that threshold responses are uncommon in the natural world and overly emphasized in the ecological literature. As ecologists who work in ecosystems chronically exposed to high abiotic stress, we consider ecological thresholds and ecosystem transformations to be critical concepts that can greatly advance understanding of ecological responses to climate change and inform ecosystem management. But quantifying ecological thresholds can be challenging, if not impossible, without data that are strategically collected for that purpose. Here, we present a conceptual framework built upon linkages between abiotic stress, climate‐driven ecological threshold responses, and the risk of ecosystem transformation. We also present a simple approach for quantifying ecological thresholds across abiotic stress gradients. We hypothesize that climate‐driven threshold responses are especially influential in ecosystems chronically exposed to high abiotic stress, where autotroph diversity is low and foundation species play a prominent ecological role. Abiotic conditions in these environments are often near physiological tolerance limits of foundation species, which means that small abiotic changes can trigger landscape‐level ecological transformations. Conversely, the alleviation of stress near thresholds can allow foundation species to thrive and spread into previously inhospitable locations. We provide examples of this climate‐driven threshold behavior from four high‐stress environments: coastal wetlands, coral reefs, drylands, and alpine ecosystems. Our overarching aim in this review is to clarify the strong relationships between abiotic stress, climate‐driven ecological thresholds, and the risk of ecosystem transformation under climate change.