Analysis of Circular Causality in Feedback Structures of the Itaewon Crowd Crush Accident

The crowd crush accident in a narrow alley in Itaewon-dong, Yongsan-gu, Seoul, occurred on October 29, 2022. The accident, which resulted in severe casualties, including 159 deaths, corresponds to a 'crowd crush accident,' a complex and dynamic disaster type that is likely to occur in cities. This paper applies the systemic methodology to the Itaewon crush accident to identify which causal cyclical feedback structures were the primary causes of the accident and, conversely, what weakened feedback structures made it impossible to prevent the accident. Furthermore, it seeks causal structures best suited for a response strategy that may prevent similar disasters in the future. The principal objective of this study is to examine the causes of numerous deaths by 'crowd crush' and disaster response failure. It analyzes causal cyclical feedback structures to understand and explain the inner workings of crowd dynamics. The results of this study demonstrate the usefulness of the system dynamics methodology in analyzing crowd dynamics and how it can be utilized in establishing government disaster response strategies for similar accidents.