Predictive Modeling and Analysis of Monkeypox Outbreaks Using Machine Learning Techniques

As Monkeypox becomes a prevalent public health issue, it is important to develop advanced detection and prediction methods that will inform public health strategies that govern Monkeypox prevention. This study employs machine learning methods to analyze and predict Monkeypox case trends. In particular, features on new cases and deaths were applied to regression and classification models to predict the total number of Monkeypox cases and new case probablity. The regression models that were applied included Linear regression (LR), Decision Tree Regression (DT), Random Forest Regression (RF), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and K-Nearest Neighbor Regression (KNN), with total cases as the outcome. Among regression methods, the Random Forest Regression model performed the best with a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 92,425,437.81 and R-squared of 0.06, indeicating moderate predictive ability. The methods were also similar to predict new cases, and once again the same algorithms were applied to classification methods, including Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) classification, and each model achieved an accuracy score of one (1.00), indicating no new cases would be missed. These results provide evidence that these are effective machine learning methods, and random forests in particular provides the best predictive capability for Monkeypox case trend analysis. The results illustrate how these models can assist data-driven decisions in public health, and evidence-based preparedness and response for future Monkeypox outbreaks.