Cooperative or clubbish? AUKUS order-engineering and EU normative power in the Indo-Pacific

Abstract This article draws on the concept of “orders of exclusion” to analyze the strategic rationale of AUKUS and the implications of the trilateral security pact for the Indo-Pacific. Taking a world order approach, the article argues that by embodying the core Anglosphere group of nations and by allowing only a limited form of technology collaboration with outsiders, there is a risk that AUKUS is perceived by regional states as an exclusionary framework, which as a consequence could undermine its legitimacy. The article also argues that AUKUS is part of a broader effort of geostrategic order-engineering by Washington to update the liberal order in a way that ensures continued American primacy in the Indo-Pacific. The article further reflects on how the European Union is a traditional advocate of normative power and the rules-based order, and thus considers how the bloc might potentially cooperate with the AUKUS partners to create more regional legitimacy, albeit that ultimately such external actors can only ever operate an exclusive order in the Indo-Pacific. Despite the Anglosphere nations and the EU cultivating different visions for the Indo-Pacific, recent developments like Russia’s war in Ukraine and the EU’s recent “principled pragmatism” are serving to enhance cohesion within the Western bloc. Still, this is a fragile construction, now under severe pressure with the arrival of President Trump.