Reducing managerial uncertainty through digital financial inclusion evidence from China

This study investigates the impact of digital financial inclusion on alleviating managerial uncertainty—a critical factor for the high-quality development of economies—using unbalanced panel data from Chinese enterprises (2014–2021) and a fixed-effects model, supplemented by robustness checks and instrumental variable methods to address endogeneity concerns. The findings reveal that digital financial inclusion significantly reduces managerial uncertainty, particularly in non-state-owned enterprises, smaller firms, and those with higher managerial ownership, by alleviating regional fiscal pressures and optimizing corporate talent structures through mechanisms such as attracting skilled professionals to urban areas and easing administrative burdens via increased local government revenues. Offering a novel perspective, this paper challenges existing notions by highlighting financial inclusion's unique role in shaping enterprise behavior through talent agglomeration and fiscal stability, distinct from broader digital transformation. These insights provide actionable implications for policymakers to prioritize digital financial inclusion, especially in underserved regions and among smaller-scale enterprises, fostering talent growth, stabilizing regulatory environments, enhancing corporate confidence, promoting economic resilience, and reducing inequalities in financial resource allocation.