Identifying supply–demand mismatches of ecosystem services and social-ecological drivers at different scales to support land use planning

• Spatial disparities of ecosystem service (ES) were quantified at multiple scales. • Bundles of ESs should consider both supply and demand for ESs. • The interactive effects and dominant drivers of ESs could inform land use planning. Integrating ecosystem services (ESs) into spatial planning remains a topical research area in land system science. However, the application of spatial–temporal and cross-scale knowledge on ESs supply and demand in management practice is underrepresented. This study attempted to examine the spatial patterns and interactions of five ESs supply–demand dynamics and reveal their responses to social-ecological drivers to propose optimization strategies for sustainable land management at different scales. We mapped the supply and demand of ESs in the economic belt on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains (EBNSTM). We identified the interactions and drivers of ecological supply and demand ratios (ESDRs), established zones based on bundles of supply–demand relationships of ESs (BSDRESs) for spatial planning and discussed the scale effects. Our findings indicated the worsening imbalance of supply–demand relationships of ESs. The trade-offs were only observed at the smaller scale and specifically between food provision (FP) and the other ESs. With the change of scale, the composition of BSDRESs had been reconfigured. Natural factors were the primary controlling factors across spatial scales and the contribution of anthropogenic factors was more prominent at the county scale compared to the 3 km scale. These offered an in-depth view for zonal and hierarchical management. The integration of ESs supply–demand considerations and scale effects into land management and planning can help meet the informational needs of decision makers and foster a more harmonious man-land relationship.