Renewable energy curtailment: a problem or an opportunity?

• Novel model evaluates RE curtailment dynamics. • Curtailment leads to increased CO 2 emissions, ranging from 0.4 to 2.3 Mt by 2030. • Mitigation strategies provide actionable insights for enhancing RE integration. • EVs used as mobile storage to increase consumption during high RE generation periods. • Energy used to power EVs is derived from wasted resources. Renewable energy (RE) curtailment poses a significant challenge to the efficient utilization of sustainable energy sources, leading to economic losses, increased reliance on fossil fuels, and unnecessary CO₂ emissions. However, existing curtailment mitigation strategies remain limited in their effectiveness and practicality. This study investigates the dynamics of RE curtailment using climatic data analysis, systems thinking, and system dynamics methodologies. A novel system dynamics model is introduced to evaluate RE curtailment and its implications while identifying innovative and effective mitigation strategies. Unlike traditional energy demand management methods that focus on reducing demand to alleviate grid stress, the proposed strategies prioritize maximizing RE utilization by increasing energy consumption during periods of high RE generation, particularly through the use of electric vehicles (EVs) as mobile energy storage units. Key findings show that curtailment leads to increased reliance on fossil fuels, escalating CO 2 emissions, and underscores the need for sustainable measures. The model reveals substantial economic and environmental impacts, with curtailment ranging from 500 to 3000 GWh by 2030 (2.5–14 % of the country's annual electricity generation), depending on the scenario. The resulting CO 2 emissions range from 0.4 to 2.3 Mt (2–10 % of the country's annual CO 2 emissions), with associated costs between $70 million and $419 million, including environmental, health, economic, social, and biodiversity losses. This study makes a novel contribution by introducing an advanced system dynamics model for assessing RE curtailment, proposing two innovative mitigation strategies—the notifications approach and fixed time slots approach—and providing both qualitative and quantitative insights to guide policymakers in reducing curtailment and enhancing RE integration. These findings offer actionable insights for policymakers and stakeholders to enhance RE integration, reduce environmental impacts, and promote a more sustainable energy system.