Evolutionarily distinct lineages of a migratory bird of prey show divergent responses to climate change

Accurately predicting species' responses to anthropogenic climate change is hampered by limited knowledge of their spatiotemporal ecological and evolutionary dynamics. We combine landscape genomics, demographic reconstructions, and species distribution models to assess the eco-evolutionary responses to past climate fluctuations and to future climate of an Afro-Palaearctic migratory raptor, the lesser kestrel (Falco naumanni). We uncover two evolutionarily and ecologically distinct lineages (European and Asian), whose demographic history, evolutionary divergence, and historical distribution range were profoundly shaped by past climatic fluctuations. Using future climate projections, we find that the Asian lineage is at higher risk of range contraction, increased migration distance, climate maladaptation, and consequently greater extinction risk than the European lineage. Our results emphasise the importance of providing historical context as a baseline for understanding species' responses to contemporary climate change, and illustrate how incorporating intraspecific genetic variation improves the ecological realism of climate change vulnerability assessments.

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Publication Details

Journal
Nature Communications
Published
2025-04-13
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-58617-5
Citations
12
Primary Topic
Species Distribution and Climate Change
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
22.06

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article

Evolutionarily distinct lineages of a migratory bird of prey show divergent responses to climate change

Jacquelyn Mountcastle, Manuela Caprioli, Claúdio Ciofi, Simona Secomandi et al.
12 citations
Nature Communications
Species Distribution and Climate Change
22.06
article

Evolutionarily distinct lineages of a migratory bird of prey show divergent responses to climate change

Jacquelyn Mountcastle, Manuela Caprioli, Claúdio Ciofi, Simona Secomandi, Gentile Francesco Ficetola, Andrea Bonisoli‐Alquati, Gianluca Lombardo, Konstantinos Sotiropoulos, Emiliano Trucchi, Giulio Formenti, Bettina Haase, Diego Rubolini, Todd E. Katzner, James R. Whiting, Erich D. Jarvis, Joan Ferrer, Antonio Torroni, Nyambayar Batbayar, Michelangelo Morganti, Jennifer Balacco, Michaël Wink, Ron Efrat, Federico De Pascalis, Anna Olivieri, Inês Catry, Anastasios Bounas, João Gameiro, Mattia Brambilla, Batmunkh Davaasuren, Elisavet‐Aspasia Toli, Alessio Iannucci, Gradimir Gradev, Airam Rodríguez, Luca Gianfranceschi, Josephine R. Paris, Liviu G. Pârâu, Maurizio Sarà, Krešimir Mikulić, Andrea Galimberti, Jacopo Giuseppe Cecere, Nikos Tsiopelas, Kiraz Erciyas‐Yavuz, Alexander E. Bragin
article en
12 citations

Abstract

Accurately predicting species' responses to anthropogenic climate change is hampered by limited knowledge of their spatiotemporal ecological and evolutionary dynamics. We combine landscape genomics, demographic reconstructions, and species distribution models to assess the eco-evolutionary responses to past climate fluctuations and to future climate of an Afro-Palaearctic migratory raptor, the lesser kestrel (Falco naumanni). We uncover two evolutionarily and ecologically distinct lineages (European and Asian), whose demographic history, evolutionary divergence, and historical distribution range were profoundly shaped by past climatic fluctuations. Using future climate projections, we find that the Asian lineage is at higher risk of range contraction, increased migration distance, climate maladaptation, and consequently greater extinction risk than the European lineage. Our results emphasise the importance of providing historical context as a baseline for understanding species' responses to contemporary climate change, and illustrate how incorporating intraspecific genetic variation improves the ecological realism of climate change vulnerability assessments.

Nature CommunicationsVol. 16(1)
Marche Polytechnic University (IT), United States Geological Survey (US), University of Lisbon (PT), University of Calgary (CA), Trakia University (BG), Universidade do Porto (PT), University of Milan (IT), University of Ioannina (GR), Heidelberg University (DE), Ondokuz Mayıs University (TR), University of Pavia (IT), University of L'Aquila (IT), Sustainability Institute (ZA), National and University Library in Zagreb (HR), Senologic Hellenic Society (GR), Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale (IT), Institute for Research on Population and Social Policies (IT), Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (ES), Agricultural University Plovdiv (BG), Kostanay State University A Baitursynov (KZ), University of Florence (IT), University of Milano-Bicocca (IT), Rockefeller University (US), University of Palermo (IT), University of Haifa (IL), California State Polytechnic University (US)
Peregrine Fund, European Commission, Ministry of Environment, Junta de Andalucía, Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, European Regional Development Fund
Openalex Percentile: Top 0%
Species Distribution and Climate Change
22.06
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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