Optimizing global protected areas to address future land use threats to biodiversity

Biodiversity faces heightened threats due to increasing global urbanization and land use intensity. Protecting global biodiversity through optimized protected areas is essential, yet current studies encounter challenges in measuring biodiversity, analyzing threat effects, and defining optimization pathways. We propose a framework to assess the impact of future land use changes on biodiversity in protected areas. By simulating biodiversity changes under different pathways, we evaluate the potential of protected areas in covering hotspots of natural habitats and biodiversity loss. Three scenarios (enhance protection management, optimize spatial distribution, improve global coverage) are compared to mitigate biodiversity loss. Our results found that future land use changes will lead to a decrease of 0.84 % and 0.97 % in richness and abundance. Compared to improving coverage, enhancing management and spatial optimization can also improve protection effectiveness. This study aids in identifying threats and optimizing pathways for global conservation efforts, advancing our understanding and capacity to address future conservation needs. • Biodiversity faces heightened threats due to increasing urbanization and land use intensity. • Current studies encounter challenges in measuring biodiversity, analyzing threat effects, and defining optimization pathways. • We propose a framework to assess the impact of future land use changes on biodiversity in protected areas. • Future land use changes will lead to a decrease of 0.84 % and 0.97 % in richness and abundance. • Compared to improving coverage, enhancing management and spatial optimization can also improve protection effectiveness.