Retrofitting Low Carbon Aviation Fuels Processes From Natural Gas to Renewables Energy‐Based Systems

ABSTRACT The aviation sector's dependence on high‐energy‐density fuels presents a challenge for decarbonization. This study evaluates the economic and environmental feasibility of retrofitting a gas‐to‐liquid (GTL) plant for low carbon aviation fuel (LCAF) production using solar electrification, an advanced reformer unit (CARGEN), and a hybrid configuration integrating both. The solar scenario achieved a 30% reduction in indirect emissions, lowering carbon intensity (CI) from 554.3 to 390.8 g CO 2 eq/bbl, but remains economically unviable without carbon credits above $185/t. The CARGEN retrofit, which recycles CO 2 into 2743 t/day multi‐walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs), reverses net emissions and maintains strong profitability at moderate natural gas (NG) prices. The hybrid scenario achieved a net‐negative total CI of −138.9 g CO 2 eq/bbl, surpassing Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) targets and emerging as the most effective decarbonization strategy. Techno‐economic analysis revealed that the LCAF production costs are highly sensitive to NG price fluctuations. At $3.36/MMBtu, the levelized cost of fuel (LCOF) ranges from $76.1/bbl (base case) to $257.8/bbl (hybrid). The hybrid scenario, despite higher capital expenditure (CAPEX) and operating expenditure (OPEX), remains the most viable long‐term strategy, ensuring economic resilience through stable CO 2 reduction costs and diversified revenue streams. However, at $7/MMBtu, its payback period exceeds 12 years under the $15/kg MWCNT pricing assumption and the highest carbon credit of $185/t, highlighting the need for policy incentives to ensure commercial scalability. This study presents a scalable model for decarbonizing aviation fuel production, aligning with global sustainability goals by integrating renewable energy and advanced CO 2 utilization technologies.