Design of a European high-speed rail network and use of passenger demand forecasting to test European policy targets

Abstract High-speed rail (HSR) is regarded as an important element in the transformation of long-distance transportation towards a climate-friendly system with less road and air travel. The European Union adopted the Green Deal which sets specific targets to increase HSR travel demand in Europe. Although there is broad consensus that Europe’s HSR network needs to be improved, few systematic studies have yet proposed future European HSR networks with detailed travel times, stations, and service frequencies. This study designed an HSR network, dubbed the “Metropolitan Network”, which connects all metropolitan regions within the European Union. The network was tested with passenger demand forecasts, using a robust travel demand model based on supply and demand data across all modes of long-distance travel. The main finding of the study is that the recently revised TEN-T plans are not sufficient to meet the EU Green Deal targets, whereas the proposed “Metropolitan Network” will exceed these targets. However, substantial investments in HSR infrastructure and fleet capacity will be necessary.