Study on the spatial and temporal evolution and influencing factors of carbon emission intensity in China's oil and gas industry

China is one of the world's largest carbon emitters. Its initiatives in energy conservation and carbon reduction are vital for global sustainable development. This study assesses the carbon emission intensity (CEI) of China's oil and gas industry from 2000 to 2021, employing spatial distribution and exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) for the first time. It also evaluates the influencing factors using the random forest model and partial dependence plots (PDP). The findings reveal: (1) a general decline in China's CEI in the oil and gas industry; (2) a regional "low-medium-high" CEI pattern from east to west, with varying trends across provinces, highlighting spatial heterogeneity; (3) an increase in spatial autocorrelation of CEI, with significant clustering in one-third of the provinces; (4) key influencing factors, ranked by importance, include the industry's energy intensity, investment intensity, structural composition, economic development level, and energy consumption structure. These insights enhance the methodological and theoretical base for carbon emission studies and support the development of precise, effective national policies for carbon reduction, thereby enhancing strategic management of oil and gas resources. • Measuring the carbon emission intensity of the oil and gas industry (CEIOG) for the first time. • CEIOG in China exhibited a general downward trend from 2000 to 2021. • The distribution of CEIOG in China shows a ‘low-medium-high’ trend from east to west, with significant spatial autocorrelation of CEIOG. • The primary influencing factors of CEIOG ranked by importance include the energy intensity of the oil and gas industry, investment intensity in the oil and gas industry, structure of the oil and gas industry, level of economic development, and structure of energy consumption.