Probabilistic Approach to Determining the Tendency to Destroy a Nuclear Reactor Vessel in the Presence of Metal Defects

The metal of the reactor vessel is subject to aging mechanisms caused by radiation exposure, high temperatures, and thermohydraulic variable loads. After decades of operation under these conditions, defects form in the metal structure. In addition to the well-known deterministic methods of testing and monitoring the metal, new approaches have been increasingly sought in recent years. The presentation in this article has two main goals: 1) To determine whether a probabilistic model is suitable for determining the tendency for breaking the metal of the casing, in the presence of defects; 2) How to use the probabilistic approach to conduct technical diagnostics of the condition of the metal of the case.