Optimizing cropland expansion for minimizing ecosystem service loss in China

• We identify the spatial pattern of cropland expansion in China from 2000 to 2020. • Forest and grassland are the hotpots of cropland expansion in China. • Food supply services improved by cropland expansion but habitat quality services declined. • Priority areas of future cropland expansion without ecological loss were identified. Global population growth and rising standards of living are the driving factors for the cropland expansion to meet increasing demands. However, there is no clear assessment of the specific losses on ecosystem services caused by China’s expansion of cropland to ensure food security at the cost of losing ecological land such as forests and grasslands. This study employed the ArcGIS platform and integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST) model to explore the cropland expansion in China from 2000 to 2020 and its impact on ecosystem services, so as to predict the priority areas of future cropland expansion in different scenarios. The results indicated that in the past 20 years, the total area of cropland expansion in China was 17.04 million hm 2 with 70.79 % conversion from forests and grasslands. Cropland expansion has contributed to an overall improvement in the food supply services with the Northern Arid and Semi-Arid Region exhibiting an increase of 18.76 × 10 6 tons, while concurrently leading to a decline in habitat quality services. The priority areas for future cropland expansion without ecological loss were found to be 1.42 million hm², which only account for 9.44 % of the total reclaimable land. To minimize the loss of ecosystem services, there is a need to adjust the cropland replenishment policies and provide an operational solution for global food security and ecological protection.