Tracking Nitrate Sources in the Lower Kagera River in the Lake Victoria Basin: Insights from Hydrochemistry, Isotopes, and the MixSIAR Model

Nitrate contamination poses a significant global environmental threat, impacting the water quality in surface and groundwater systems. Despite its considerable impact, there remains a lack of comprehensive understanding of nitrate sources and discharge patterns, particularly in the Lake Victoria basin of East Africa. To address this gap, a study was conducted in the Kagera River basin, responsible for 33% of Lake Victoria’s surface inflow. This study utilized δ15N and δ18O isotope analysis in nitrate, hydrochemistry, and the Bayesian mixing model (MixSIAR) to identify and quantify nitrate sources. Spatiotemporal data were collected across three seasons: long rains, dry season, and short rains, in areas with diverse land uses. Nitrate isotopic data from water and potential sources were integrated into a Bayesian mixing model to determine the relative contributions of various nitrate sources. Notable spatial variations were observed at sampling sites with concentrations ranging from 0.004 to 3.31 mg L−1. Spatially and temporally, δ15N-NO3− values ranged from +6.0% to +10.2‰, whereas δ18O-NO3− displayed significant spatial differences with mean ranges from −1% to +7‰. MixSIAR analysis revealed important contributions from manure and sewage sources ranging between 49% and 73%. A boron analysis revealed manure was the main source of nitrates in the manure and sewage. These results show that it is necessary to implement improved manure and sewage management practices, especially through proper waste treatment and disposal systems, to enable informed policy decisions to enhance nitrogen management strategies in riparian East Africa, and to safeguard the region’s water resources and ecosystems.