From Neighbors to Potential Members: Is the War in Ukraine a Critical Juncture for the European Union’s Enlargement Policy?

In the aftermath of the Russian aggression against Ukraine in 2022, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine (the Associated Trio) immediately submitted their applications for membership of the European Union (EU). In response to the Associated Trio’s formal membership applications, the EU granted candidate status to Moldova and Ukraine in 2022 and to Georgia in 2023. In doing so, the EU has made clear that it is prepared to offer more than symbolic solidarity to neighbors invaded or threatened by Russian aggression. This article critically examines the implications of the war in Ukraine for EU enlargement policy. It seeks to determine whether the inclusion of the Associated Trio in the enlargement agenda symbolizes a shift in the EU's overall approach to enlargement. This article uses historical institutionalism’s critical juncture concept as a theoretical framework. Throughout the study, a qualitative method is used to analyze the EU's official documents and the available literature in a descriptive and interpretive way. The article concludes that the EU's decision to rethink its long-fatigued enlargement policy following the war in Ukraine appears to be a critical juncture that holds the potential to shape the future landscape of enlargement.