Global Variability and Future Projections of Marine Heatwave Onset and Decline Rates

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) can significantly impact marine ecosystems and socio-economic systems, and their severity may increase with global warming. Nevertheless, research on the onset and decline rates of MHWs remains limited, and their historical and future variations are not yet fully understood. This study, therefore, analyzes the spatiotemporal characteristics of MHW onset and decline rates by using historical and future sea surface temperature data from OISSTv2.1 and CMIP6. The results indicate that during the historical period from 1982 to 2014, MHW onset and decline rates were higher in eddy-active mid-latitude current systems and the western tropical region but lower in subtropical gyres. A remarkably high correlation (0.94) exists between the onset and decline rates; regions with higher onset rates also tend to have higher decline rates. Approximately 49.69% of the global ocean exhibits an increasing trend in MHW onset rates, with significant increases observed in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific. Meanwhile, 92.87% of oceanic regions exhibit an increase in decline rates. Looking ahead to the future (2015~2100), both the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios display consistent spatial patterns of MHW onset and decline rates. The Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension, Gulf Stream, Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and Brazil-Malvinas Confluence regions exhibit relatively higher onset and decline rates. Under the SSP585 scenario, both the onset and decline rates of MHWs are higher than those under the SSP245 scenario. This indicates that as global warming intensifies, more extreme MHWs are likely to occur. This finding indicates that it is necessary to pay attention to the rate of global warming when mitigating its potential impacts.