Satellite-Observed Arid Vegetation Greening and Terrestrial Water Storage Decline in the Hexi Corridor, Northwest China

The interplay between terrestrial water storage and vegetation dynamics in arid regions is critical for understanding ecohydrological responses to climate change and human activities. This study examines the coupling between total water storage anomaly (TWSA) and vegetation greenness changes in the Hexi Corridor, an arid region in northwestern China consisting of three inland river basins—Shule, Heihe, and Shiyang—from 2002 to 2022. Utilizing TWSA data from GRACE/GRACE-FO satellites and MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) data, we applied a trend analysis and partial correlation statistical techniques to assess spatiotemporal patterns and their drivers across varying aridity gradients and land cover types. The results reveal a significant decline in TWSA across the Hexi Corridor (−0.10 cm/year, p < 0.01), despite a modest increase in precipitation (1.69 mm/year, p = 0.114). The spatial analysis shows that TWSA deficits are most pronounced in the northern Shiyang Basin (−600 to −300 cm cumulative TWSA), while the southern Qilian Mountain regions exhibit accumulation (0 to 800 cm). Vegetation greening is strongest in irrigated croplands, particularly in arid and hyper-arid regions of the study area. The partial correlation analysis highlights distinct drivers: in the wetter semi-humid and semi-arid regions, precipitation plays a dominant role in driving TWSA trends. Such a rainfall dominance gives way to temperature- and human-dominated vegetation greening in the arid and hyper-arid regions. The decoupling of TWSA and precipitation highlights the importance of human irrigation activities and the warming-induced atmospheric water demand in co-driving the TWSA dynamics in arid regions. These findings suggest that while irrigation expansion cause satellite-observed greening, it exacerbates water stress through increased evapotranspiration and groundwater depletion, particularly in most water-limited arid zones. This study reveals the complex ecohydrological dynamics in drylands, emphasizing the need for a holistic view of dryland greening in the context of global warming, the escalating human demand of freshwater resources, and the efforts in achieving sustainable development.