Is innovation slowing down? Insights from the AIMS framework of patent values

Amidst the unprecedented expansion of scientific and technological knowledge over the past century, concerns persist regarding a slowdown in innovation. To address this, we introduce the AIMS framework, which categorizes patents into four types—Aurora, Invisible, Mirage, and Success—based on their respective inherent scientific values and market-recognized economic values. Utilizing USPTO patent and citation data from 1976 to 2022, our analysis reveals an increasing volume of patent issuances but a concerning dilution in scientific quality starting in the 2000s. This trend is primarily attributed to the rise of low scientific value patents—categorized as Mirage and Invisible—and a modest decline in high-impact scientific patents—categorized as Success and Aurora. Meanwhile, the economic value of patents has risen, especially noted with the growth in Mirage patents since the 2010s, indicating a shift towards strategies that prioritize market-driven patenting. This study highlights the evolving nature of patents from mere indicators of scientific innovation to strategic tools for market dominance, providing an alternative understanding of patent value and its implications for firms’ strategic decisions over patent issuance across different sectors. • AIMS framework classifies patents by scientific and economic value. • Patent quality declined after 2000 due to Mirage and Invisible patents. • Mirage patents gained value, showing a shift to market-driven goals. • Industries differ in valuing science versus economic potential. • Patents increasingly serve as strategic tools to maintain market dominance.