Analysis of Factors Influencing the Ecosystem Service Value in Yuzhong County and Multi-Scenario Predictions

The value of ecosystem services (ESV) serves as a crucial metric for assessing the cost-effectiveness of ecosystems and evaluating their economic worth. Predicting the evolution of ESV across various land uses under different scenarios is essential for maintaining ecological stability and fostering sustainable developm0ent. Utilizing land use change data combined with the PLUS predictive model and ecosystem service value equivalence techniques, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal patterns and underlying drivers of ESV in Yuzhong County, China. The results indicate that the overall ESV distribution exhibits a “fragmented northeast, clustered southwest” pattern, dominated by high-high and low-low clustering. Among the driving factors, elevation exerts the greatest influence on ESV, followed by precipitation and population density, while slope contributes least. Under natural development scenarios, the ESV remains relatively stable compared to the base year of 2020. In contrast, the farmland protection scenario effectively preserves the ESV associated with cultivated land. However, the economic development scenario leads to a significant decline in the overall ESV, with a retraction of high-value areas and an expansion of low-value regions. These insights provide a fresh perspective for analyzing the factors influencing ESV and for conducting multi-scenario predictions, thereby aiding in the development of ecological resource conservation and landscape ecological risk prevention strategies in the study region.