The Strategic Selection of Concentrated Solar Thermal Power Technologies in Developing Countries Using a Fuzzy Decision Framework

Relative to other renewable energy technologies, concentrated solar power (CSP) is only in the beginning phases of large-scale deployment. Its incorporation into national grids is steadily growing, with anticipation of its substantial contribution to the energy mix. A number of emerging economies are situated in areas that receive abundant amounts of direct normal irradiance (DNI), which translates into expectations of significant effectiveness for CSP. However, any assessment related to the planning of CSP facilities is challenging because of the complexity of the associated criteria and the number of stakeholders. Additional complications are the differing concepts and configurations for CSP plants available, a dearth of related experience, and inadequate amounts of data in some developing countries. The goal of the work presented in this paper was to evaluate the practical CSP implementation options for such parts of the world. Ambiguity and imprecision issues were addressed through the application of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) in a fuzzy environment. Six technology combinations, involving dry cooling and varied installed capacity levels, were examined: three parabolic trough collectors with and without thermal storage, two solar towers with differing storage levels, and a linear Fresnel with direct steam generation. The in-depth performance analysis was based on 4 main criteria and 29 sub-criteria. Quantitative and qualitative data, plus input from 44 stakeholders, were incorporated into the proposed fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model. In addition to demonstrating the advantages and drawbacks of each scenario relative to the local energy sector requirements, the model’s results also provide accurate recommendation guidelines for integrating CSP technology into national grids while respecting stakeholders’ priorities.