GeoPro-Net: Learning Interpretable Spatiotemporal Prediction Models Through Statistically-Guided Geo-Prototyping

The problem of forecasting spatiotemporal events such as crimes and accidents is crucial to public safety and city management. Besides accuracy, interpretability is also a key requirement for spatiotemporal forecasting models to justify the decisions. Merely presenting predicted scores fails to convince the public and does not contribute to future urban planning. Interpretation of the spatiotemporal forecasting mechanism is, however, challenging due to the complexity of multi-source spatiotemporal features, the non-intuitive nature of spatiotemporal patterns for non-expert users, and the presence of spatial heterogeneity in the data. Currently, no existing deep learning model intrinsically interprets the complex predictive process learned from multi-source spatiotemporal features. To bridge the gap, we propose GeoPro-Net, an intrinsically interpretable spatiotemporal model for spatiotemporal event forecasting problems. GeoPro-Net introduces a novel Geo-concept convolution operation, which employs statistical tests to extract predictive patterns in the input as "Geo-concepts'', and condenses the "Geo-concept-encoded'' input through interpretable channel fusion and geographic-based pooling. In addition, GeoPro-Net learns different sets of prototypes of concepts inherently, and projects them to real-world cases for interpretation. Comprehensive experiments and case studies on four real-world datasets demonstrate that GeoPro-Net provides better interpretability while still achieving competitive prediction performance compared with state-of-the-art baselines.