Conformalized Interval Arithmetic with Symmetric Calibration

Uncertainty quantification is essential in decision-making, especially when joint distributions of random variables are involved. While conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, it traditionally focuses on single predictions. This paper introduces novel conformal prediction methods for estimating the sum or average of unknown labels over specific index sets. We develop conformal prediction intervals for single target to the prediction interval for sum of multiple targets. Under permutation invariant assumptions, we prove the validity of our proposed method. We also apply our algorithms on class average estimation and path cost prediction tasks, and we show that our method outperforms existing conformalized approaches as well as non-conformal approaches.

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Publication Details

Journal
Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence
Published
2025-04-11
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v39i18.34114
Citations
2
Primary Topic
Numerical Methods and Algorithms
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
4.36

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article

Conformalized Interval Arithmetic with Symmetric Calibration

Zhixin Zhou, Rui Luo
2 citations
Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence
Numerical Methods and Algorithms
4.36
article

Conformalized Interval Arithmetic with Symmetric Calibration

Zhixin Zhou, Rui Luo
article en
2 citations

Abstract

Uncertainty quantification is essential in decision-making, especially when joint distributions of random variables are involved. While conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, it traditionally focuses on single predictions. This paper introduces novel conformal prediction methods for estimating the sum or average of unknown labels over specific index sets. We develop conformal prediction intervals for single target to the prediction interval for sum of multiple targets. Under permutation invariant assumptions, we prove the validity of our proposed method. We also apply our algorithms on class average estimation and path cost prediction tasks, and we show that our method outperforms existing conformalized approaches as well as non-conformal approaches.

Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial IntelligenceVol. 39(18)
City University of Hong Kong (HK), Benha University (EG)
City University of Hong Kong
Openalex Percentile: Top 7%
Numerical Methods and Algorithms
4.36
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