Short-billed Dowitcher (<i>Limnodromus griseus hendersoni</i>) nesting habitat preferences and climate change implications in Churchill, Manitoba, Canada

Climate change poses a threat to subarctic ecosystems, and subarctic breeding shorebirds are already experiencing loss of breeding habitat due to the changing landscape. In this study, we aimed to identify the nesting habitat preferences of the Short-billed Dowitcher Limnodromus griseus hendersoni, a declining shorebird that breeds in the subarctic tundra of Canada, at one of their nesting sites near Churchill, Manitoba. We use Maxent, a presence-only species distribution model, to identify its nesting habitat preferences and visualize the potential distribution of suitable nesting habitat around Churchill. Presence locations were acquired by intensive nest surveys from 2021 to 2023. Terrain data, acquired via remote sensing, were used as environmental predictors. Nest sites were mostly predicted by vegetation structure, particularly high vegetation productivity related with wet-sedge meadows. Suitable nesting habitat is predicted to be 3357 ha in the area around Churchill, but encroachment by shrub or trees would severely decrease habitat suitability. Modelling was based on a relatively small number of observations because Short-billed Dowitcher nests are both uncommon on the landscape and highly cryptic. Nonetheless, this study provides valuable insights into the breeding biology of an understudied shorebird species at one of their few monitored breeding sites.