On the function of fillings and discharges distribution in calculations of flow regulation by stochastic dynamic programming

Relevance. The problem of water resources management in conditions of disruption of the stationary time series of runoff is considered. It is proposed to consider the disturbed hydrological series as a set of conditionally stationary periods. The search for optimal control for each period is carried out by stochastic dynamic programming. Methods. To obtain the distribution function of fillings and discharges, an iterative algorithm is proposed for solving a system of equations linking the desired probabilities for all calculated intervals. Results. The method is implemented using the example of the Tsimlyansk reservoir, and allows us to calculate the characteristics of the reservoir’s output at scenario-defined values of inflow parameters for future climatic situations.