Impact of climate change on agricultural yield: evidence from Vietnam

Purpose. Climate change is considered as one of the most stressful issues nowadays. This study aims to explore the impact of climate change on agricultural yields in Vietnam, a leading exporter in global agricultural markets. Methodology / approach. The correlation matrix analyse, panel cointegration test, panel estimated regression are used for quantitative analyse of the effect of climate variables on agricultural outputs. The study sample includes 285 observations collected for 15 provinces of Vietnam during the period 2002–2020. Results. Unlike previous studies, ours is the first to focus on the impact of climate change on yields in the provinces of Vietnam, a leading agricultural exporting country in Asia. Climate variables have harmful effects on all agricultural crops in the study sample, although the effects are somewhat different. In particular, sweet potatoes are negatively affected by all climate variables, and this crop may be the most affected agricultural product in the context of climate change in Vietnam. After that, cassava and maize are negatively affected by humidity, but positively affected by precipitation. Rice, however, seems to have been less affected, as it has been showing record yields in recent years. Originality / scientific novelty. Although the relationship between agricultural production and climate change has been a spotlight topic for investigation in recent years, the current literature still needs to contribute with evidence from more countries, especially in top agricultural producing countries. Our paper presents some contributions to the current literature where three cointegration tests confirm the existence of long-term relationships between climate variables and agricultural yields in Vietnam. Besides, the effect of climate variables on agricultural outputs are identified and discussed. This evidence provides information for urgently adapting strategies in relation to climate change not only in the short-run, but also with long-run adaptation initiatives. Practical value / implications. Information regarding the relationship between climate change and agricultural outputs is helpful not only for policymakers but also for farmers. For adapting to climate change, farmers can establish and promote smart agricultural models. Besides, policymakers should have smart agricultural development policies but must stick to national socio-economic development plans. International cooperation can help attract more and more investment flows in agriculture. Sustainable land management policy is considered as a necessary policy in the future. The countries should develop human resources for smart agricultural development by improving the education quality of the training institutions and teaching facilities.