Uncertainty and its impact on the formationof spare parts inventories to ensuring the efficiency of transport processes

Improving the efficiency of transport processes is impossible without improving the logistics of managing spare parts inventories. The functioning of logistics processes in supply chains is accompanied by significant uncertainty and risks. The time that managers spend on eliminating disruptions in the supply chains of spare parts due to the impact of uncertainty on road transport is from 20% to 40% of the total time spent on ensuring logistics processes. This indicator can be reduced by implementing advanced supply chain management systems, using analytics to predict and prevent problems, as well as increasing the level of cooperation with suppliers. The article examines the main factors shaping the demand for spare parts. The causes of uncertainty and risks in supply chains are analysed. It is established that the uncertainty of demand factors for spare parts can be caused by a number of factors, such as fluctuations in economic conditions, seasonal changes, changes in technology, or even unforeseen situations, such as pandemics or natural disasters. These factors include human characteristics, technical means, operation and maintenance processes, and the external environment. For optimal resource allocation to ensure system reliability, it is necessary to prioritize influencing factors. Since many of these factors are qualitative and are assessed by experts, this complicates the application of traditional methods of experimental design and regression analysis, which are usually used in the statistical theory of reliability of “human-machine” systems. Analysis of sources of uncertainty in logistics processes of supply chains, methods for their reduction, as well as economic and mathematical methods for supporting decision-making regarding the structure and planning of work in supply chains allows us to identify a number of trends and promising areas of research in this area. These areas include: the need to form and develop a terminology base, improve methods for forecasting spare parts inventories, develop supply chain management strategies, minimize risks in supply chains, and find a balance between the efficiency and sustainability of inventory management systems