TAXATION AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: A BAYESIAN APPROACH IN HO CHI MINH CITY

Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), as the economic hub of Vietnam, significantly contributes to the national GDP through its thriving manufacturing, trade, services, and technology sectors. However, taxation policies play a crucial role in shaping economic growth by influencing business activities, investments, and household income. This paper examines the relationship between taxation and economic performance in HCMC, using Bayesian regression analysis to assess the effects of Value Added Tax (VAT), Special Consumption Tax (SCT), Corporate Income Tax (CIT), and Personal Income Tax (PIT) on the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP). The findings highlight VAT as the most significant positive contributor to economic growth, while PIT and SCT show uncertain or negative effects. The results provide essential insights for policymakers in optimizing tax policies for sustainable economic development.