Intelligence Approach-Driven Bidirectional Analysis Framework for Efficiency Measurement and Resource Optimization of Forest Carbon Sink in China

A critical natural solution to combat global warming and reduce carbon emission is the forest carbon sink (FCS). Owing to variations in geographic location, policy formulation, and economic development, Chinese provinces exhibit significant disparities in forest carbon sink efficiency (FCSE). Therefore, evaluating and enhancing FCSE and optimizing resource allocation have emerged as pressing issues. This study develops a pioneering analytical framework for the systematic estimation and optimization of FCS resources. It measures FCSE, considering both dynamic and static aspects and adopting a spatial–temporal perspective, utilizing the Malmquist Index and Super Efficiency Slacks-Based Measure to analyze the primary factors influencing FCSE. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average method forecasts carbon sink goals for typical regions for the years 2030, 2045, and 2060. To effectively enhance FCSE and rationally optimize FCS resource allocation, this study constructs the Inverse Data Envelopment Analysis. The study’s findings indicate significant disparities in the extremes of the average FCSE across Chinese regions, with a mean value difference of 2.2188. Technological change is the primary driver of advancements in FCSE. To achieve the 2060 carbon sink goal, each input indicator requires a substantial increase. Drawing on insights into the FCS landscape, the study delineates regional disparities and offers a scientific foundation for policymakers to devise strategies and address sustainability concerns regarding FCS.