Using Multi-Scenario Analyses to Determine the Driving Factors of Land Use in Inland River Basins in Arid Northwest China

Global challenges such as climate change, ecological imbalance, and resource scarcity are closely related with land-use change. Arid land, which is 41% of the global land area, has fragile ecology and limited water resources. To ensure food security, ecological resilience, and sustainable use of land resources, there is a need for multi-scenario analysis of land-use change in arid regions. To carry this out, multiple spatial analysis techniques and land change indicators were used to analyze spatial land-use change in a typical inland river basin in arid Northwest China—the Tailan River Basin (TRB). Then, the PLUS model was used to analyze, in a certain time period (1980–2060), land-use change in the same basin. The scenarios used included the Natural Increase Scenario (NIS), Food Security Scenario (FSS), Economic Development Scenario (EDS), Water Protection Scenario (WPS), Ecological Protection Scenario (EPS), and Balanced Eco-economy Scenario (BES). The results show that for the period of 1980–2020, land-use change in the TRB was mainly driven by changes in cultivated land, grassland, forest land, and built-up land. For this period, there was a substantial increase in cultivated land (865.56 km2) and a significant decrease in forest land (197.44 km2) and grassland (773.55 km2) in the study area. There was a notable spatial shift in land use in the period of 1990–2010. The overall accuracy (OA) of the PLUS model was more than 90%, with a Kappa value of 85% and a Figure of Merit (FOM) of 0.18. The most pronounced expansion in cultivated land area in the 2020–2060 period was for the FSS (661.49 km2). This led to an increase in grain production and agricultural productivity in the region. The most significant increase in built-up area was under the EDS (61.7 km2), contributing to economic development and population growth. While the conversion of grassland area into other forms of land use was the smallest under the BES (606.08 km2), built-up area increased by 55.82 km2. This presented an ideal scenario under which ecological conservation was in balance with economic development. This was the most sustainable land management strategy with a harmonized balance across humans and the ecology in the TRB study area. This strategy may provide policymakers with a realistic land-use option with the potential to offer an acceptable policy solution to land use.