Evaluating Sustainable Financing in Real Estate: A Panel Data Approach to Economic Growth and SDG Attainment in Nigeria

Nigeria’s pursuit of economic growth and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) faces persistent challenges, including inadequate financing mechanisms and underdeveloped real estate infrastructure. Despite efforts to promote sustainable urban development, the integration of green financing into the real estate sector remains limited. This gap hinders progress towards key SDGs, such as sustainable cities (SDG 11) and economic resilience. Addressing this issue is critical, as sustainable real estate financing can serve as a catalyst for economic development while advancing environmental and social goals. This study aims to evaluate the role of sustainable real estate financing in mediating the relationship between economic growth and SDG achievements in Nigeria from 2000 to 2024. By employing advanced panel data techniques, the research provides empirical evidence on how green bonds, mortgage rates, and real estate investments influence economic indicators and SDG progress. Secondary data were sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the United Nations, and global financial databases. The analysis utilized Python, with Pandas for data preparation, Statsmodels for Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, and Matplotlib for visualization. Mediation analysis assessed the indirect effect of economic growth on SDG outcomes through real estate financing, with the Sobel test confirming mediation significance. Results revealed a significant direct effect of economic development on SDGs (β = 0.74, p < 0.001) and a notable indirect effect mediated by sustainable real estate financing (β = 0.21, p = 0.002). Green mortgage disbursements (β = 0.63, p < 0.001) and green building certifications (β = 0.58, p = 0.004) emerged as key drivers of urban sustainability. The model explained 87% of the variance in SDG achievements (R² = 0.87). The study concludes that expanding sustainable real estate financing can significantly amplify Nigeria’s progress towards SDGs. Policy recommendations include increasing green mortgage incentives and embedding sustainable financing into national development strategies to foster long-term economic growth and environmental sustainability.