The Impact of Food Import Competition Effects on Water–Land–Food System Coordination: A Perspective from Land Use Efficiency for Food Production in China

The exchange of food commodities significantly contributes to alleviating the strain on land used for agricultural production by linking areas rich in land with those facing resource limitations. This study employs the entropy weight–TOPSIS method to measure the water–land–food system, utilizes a two-way fixed-effects model to examine the impact of food import competition on the coordination of the water–land–food system, and applies a spatial Durbin model to explore the spatial spillover effects of this impact. The findings indicate the following: (1) The average coordination level of the WLF system in China stands at 0.317, showing considerable variability. The WLF system coordination in all regions of China initially decreased and then increased in the period studied, with the northeast region exhibiting the highest level of coordination. (2) The competitive effect of domestic and foreign food costs driven by food imports has a positive impact on the coordination of the WLF system. For every 100,000 hectares of land saved through the competition effect, the coordination of China’s WLF system increases by 0.002. However, once the saved land exceeds 1.5 million hectares, the impact of import competition on the importing country’s food market becomes excessive and starts to have a negative effect. (3) Split-sample regression revealed that the positive effect of food import competition on the coordination of the WLF system is stronger in the southern region compared to the northern region. Additionally, the increase in the competition effect has a more pronounced impact on the coordination of the WLF system in major food production areas than in non-major production areas. (4) Based on the results of the spatial econometric model, the increase in the competitive effect of food imports in a region not only increases the coordination of the WLF system within that region but also positively impacts the coordination of the system in neighboring regions. (5) The land use efficiency of food imports acts as a conduit for the impact of food import competition on the coordination of the WLF system.