Power Planning Methods Considering Boundary Uncertainties

With the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of renewable energy, the economic efficiency of the power grid has been significantly improved. However, the randomness and volatility of new energy output increase the uncertainty of the boundary conditions on the power side. In this paper, a new power supply structure planning model is proposed to solve the problem of power supply structure planning with uncertain boundary conditions. Firstly, with the goal of minimizing the expected cost of the system in the planning period, the constraints of power balance and natural resources based on the idea of model predictive control were introduced to establish the power structure pre-planning model. The power structure under the expected value of future boundary conditions was pre-planned, and the pre-planning decision sequence was obtained. Further, based on the pre-planning decision sequence, the online rolling optimization model is used to obtain the current decision results and update the initial and boundary conditions of the next round of pre-planning. Finally, the system test shows that the model effectively reduces the overall cost of the system and the total carbon emission.