Economic consequences of a full- scale Russian-Ukrainian war for the European oil industry: an analysis of market changes

Introduction. The full-scale russian-ukrainian war, which began in February 2022, has become an unprecedented challenge for the global economy, and especially for the energy sector. The purpose of the research. Analysis of the economic consequences of a full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war for the European oil industry. To achieve the goal, the following tasks have been defined: to establish the extent of the impact of the sanctions policy on the import of oil to Europe; identify key challenges for the oil refining industry; evaluate price trends on the European oil market. Methods. The study employed a systematic approach, which made it possible to assess the impact of the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war by examining market changes in the European oil and gas industry as a result of the interaction of political, economic, and geopolitical factors. Economic and statistical analysis methods included an assessment of changes in the oil market, particularly the analysis of price fluctuations, export and import levels of energy resources in European countries under the influence of sanctions and supply disruptions. Comparative analysis was used to determine the differences in the war’s impact on the oil and gas industry of individual EU countries, depending on their energy policies, geographic location, and degree of dependence on imports of Russian energy resources. Forecasting and economic process modeling methods provided the development of scenarios for the European oil and gas market, taking into account the duration of the conflict, sanctions restrictions, and the potential for diversifying energy resource supplies. Results. Significant structural changes in the European oil sector were identified, including diversification of supply sources, changes in logistics chains and transformation of pricing policy. The main factors influencing the industry were identified and key trends in its development were identified. Prospects. Prospects for further research are related to the need for a more detailed study of the long-term consequences of a full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war and an assessment of the effectiveness of the implemented changes. Special attention should be paid to the analysis of the impact of new technologies and innovations on the competitiveness of the European oil sector,as well as development of recommendations for further improvement of industry development strategies.