Spatial patterns and longitudinal trends of disaster losses in Aceh: a retrospective analysis

Abstract Disasters in Aceh caused significant losses from 2014 to 2023, impacting various regions differently. This study utilizes disaster occurrence and mortality data for six disaster types (floods, landslides, extreme weather, drought, forest and land fires, and earthquakes) collected for each regency in Aceh, sourced from Badan Penanggulangan Bencana Aceh (BPBA). The impact of these disasters is profound, often resulting in significant mortality and extensive damage to property and livelihoods. The time trend of disaster occurrences was analyzed using Annual Percent Change (APC) estimated using weighted linear regression models. Mortality trends were assessed using statistical tests for distribution normality and variance. Results show that floods were the most frequent disaster, primarily affecting coastal regions, while landslides were most deadly in central areas of Aceh. APC results revealed upward trends in disaster frequency, notably in Aceh Tengah and Aceh Tenggara, while certain regions exhibited more stable disaster patterns. Mortality rates were highest in the northwestern and southern regions, with significant losses due to floods and landslides, while forest fires had zero mortality across all regions. These findings underscore the need for targeted disaster risk reduction strategies that account for regional differences in vulnerability and impact. Policymakers should prioritize context-specific interventions to mitigate future disaster risks in Aceh.