Between Adaptation or Retreat in the Face of Slow-onset Disasters: Lessons Learned of Indonesia’s National and Local Adaptation Strategies to Manage Displacement Risks

Abstract In the Global South, climate change and natural hazards have been shown to increase vulnerabilities amongst coastal communities and amplify displacement risks. For example, Indonesia’s northern coast of Java Island, Demak Regency, has been experiencing rising sea levels which have led to slow-onset disasters. Since the 2000s, the regency has faced increased risks of coastal flooding due to sea level rise and land subsidence, leading to a gradual, permanent inundation that causes massive community displacement. Over time, the disaster risks are projected to worsen, necessitating the urgency to escalate flood-risk reduction and adaptation policy efforts to address displacement risks associated with natural hazards and climate change impacts. Several policies have been deployed to accommodate the issue, such as in-situ adaptation policies through protective infrastructures and retreat or planned relocation. Yet, the implementation is suboptimal due to the policy’s unpopularity amongst the locals, lack of thorough spatial planning and risk assessment, as well as cost-related concerns. Furthermore, national and local government coordination and policy initiatives remain insufficient to address slow-onset disaster displacement. Through a narrative analysis method and political system theory approach, this study identified adaptation policy gaps related to slow-onset disaster displacement risks by reviewing national and local policy documents, standards, and interview results of key government stakeholders related to disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation, as well as social affairs and displacement. Overall, this study aims to provide policy recommendations to improve more robust and strategic adaptation to address slow-onset disaster displacement risks.